Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
